Week 1 preview: the rematch is about New England's interior line
The Super Bowl was seven months ago and both teams have told themselves a story about it since. New England’s version is that Drake Maye’s shoulder, hurt in the AFC Championship Game, cost them.
The box score points elsewhere. Seattle won 29-13 without needing anything from its passing game: Sam Darnold went 19 of 38 for 202 yards, which is 5.3 yards an attempt and a bad day by any standard. It did not matter, because Kenneth Walker III carried 27 times for 135 yards and took MVP, and the defense took the ball away three times while New England punted eight. Seattle controlled it start to finish and never had to throw to stay ahead.
The matchup that decides it
Look at the Patriots’ interior line, not the quarterback. Ben Brown, the center they added to the 53-man roster last week, is already ruled out with a knee injury. They lost their top backup interior lineman and their swing tackle to injury designations before the season started. That is a patched middle facing a Seattle front that rotates Byron Murphy II, Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed and DeMarcus Lawrence, and whose whole design is to make the center identify a pressure that is not coming from where he thinks.
Maye is mobile enough to survive edge pressure. Interior pressure is what breaks a quarterback’s platform, and it is the one thing New England is least equipped to handle this week.
What Seattle has to prove
Which makes the backfield the story. The formula that won the title was 27 Walker carries, and Walker is in Kansas City. Zach Charbonnet is on the physically-unable-to-perform list for at least four games. The room is Jadarian Price, George Holani and Emanuel Wilson, none of whom has carried a game.
New England also just paid Christian Gonzalez, which secures their best cover corner but addresses the half of February they were already winning. If Seattle cannot run the way it did in Santa Clara, this becomes a game Darnold has to win throwing against a secondary that just got more expensive, and that is a different game than the one they played in February.
The offense also changed coordinators. Brian Fleury replaced Klint Kubiak; the scheme is continuous, the play-caller is not.
Nick Emmanwori being limited rather than out is the quiet good news. He does not have a game-status designation, which usually means a player is going to try. If he plays even 40 percent of snaps, Seattle’s secondary looks like the one that won in February.
The number
Seattle by 3.5 with a total of 44.5 as of Sunday. That is a short number for a defending champion at home against a team missing pieces up front, and it reflects respect for New England’s 14-3 season more than doubt about Seattle. The under looks like the sharper side of the total: two good defenses, a first game with new offensive coordinators on both sides, and a Wednesday night crowd that will make communication hard for the visitors.
Prediction
Seattle 24, New England 20. The banner goes up, the crowd does what it does on a night game, and the Patriots’ patched interior line gives up two drive-killing pressures. But the 16-point margin in February came from three takeaways and a 135-yard MVP performance, and neither is a thing you can count on twice. Without Walker, this is closer.
Full broadcast, betting, watch party and stadium details are in the game day guide. The current injury report is on the news page.