Week 3 preview: Seahawks at Commanders, prediction, odds and injury report
Final: Commanders 33, Seahawks 31. We picked Seattle 24-13 and the under. The game went over, 64 points to our 40.5 line, and Washington won on three Seattle turnovers, which the preview did not see coming. The recap goes through what we got wrong. The preview below is as published before kickoff.
A week ago this looked like the game where Seattle would find out whether Drew Lock could hold the job. Now it is Sam Darnold’s return against a Washington team starting its backup quarterback, and the question has moved to the other side of Seattle’s defense: both starting safeties are out, and a player making his first NFL start is lining up across from Stefon Diggs. Kickoff is 10 a.m. Pacific on FOX, in the rain.
The final reports
Seattle. Darnold was limited Wednesday and full Thursday and Friday, and he has no designation. Mike Macdonald on Friday: “Sam’s going to play.” The damage is at safety. Julian Love hurt his calf in Thursday’s practice and is out, and Ty Okada (hamstring) misses a third straight game, so AJ Finley starts next to Rodney Thomas II, who was signed to the active roster Wednesday; Maxen Hook was elevated from the practice squad Saturday as the depth. Nose tackle Brandon Pili (concussion, neck) is questionable. Jadarian Price (chest) practiced fully Friday and plays. Right guard Anthony Bradford is on injured reserve, so Christian Haynes and Beau Stephens keep rotating.
Washington. Five are out and nobody is questionable: Jayden Daniels (left elbow), guard Sam Cosmi (concussion, throat), safety Nick Cross (illness), linebacker Frankie Luvu (groin) and tight end Chig Okonkwo (hamstring). Defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw missed Wednesday but was full Friday. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil is still on injured reserve. Marcus Mariota starts.
The full table, with every practice day for both teams, is on the injury report. Seattle’s inactives, posted at 8:29 a.m. Pacific: Love, Okada, Pili, cornerback Avery Smith, linebacker Connor O’Toole, and Jalen Milroe as the emergency third quarterback.
What Washington has done so far
Two road games, two losses. The opener at Philadelphia came down to a stopped two-point try with about a minute left, 24-22. At Dallas, Daniels dislocated his left elbow on the last play of the first half, the same elbow he dislocated against Seattle last November, and Dak Prescott finished 26 of 31 for 279 yards and four touchdowns in a 37-20 loss. Mariota relieved him and went 11 of 16 for 111 yards and a touchdown. Stefon Diggs has three touchdown catches, one from each quarterback on Sunday. Washington’s line has allowed one sack in two games, which is the best thing it has done.
The matchups that decide it
Finley and Thomas against Diggs. This is the one that could go wrong. Seattle’s two starting safeties are both out. Finley was signed to the 53 on the morning of the opener and makes his first start; Thomas starts for the third straight week. Diggs is the receiver both of Washington’s quarterbacks have found in the end zone, and Mariota is 2-0 against Seattle. Expect Seattle to keep a safety deep and make Mariota throw underneath.
Seattle’s front against a patched line. Washington is without Tunsil at left tackle and Cosmi at guard. Its line has protected well so far, but that was with Daniels behind it for six of eight quarters. Leonard Williams and Jarran Reed had the sacks at Arizona, and Seattle has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 28 straight regular-season games, so the plan is familiar: take away the run and make a backup throw into the wind.
Darnold, a week of practice and a new pass rush. Darnold was hurt on the opening drive of the season, so this is effectively his first game of it. Washington signed Odafe Oweh and drafted Sonny Styles seventh overall, and both had a sack in the opener. Brian Fleury’s offense ran the ball 40 times at Arizona with Lock; it does not need Darnold to win the game, only not to lose it.
The weather. The National Weather Service has rain likely from 1 to 4 p.m. Eastern and a northwest wind with gusts to 32 mph. That helps the team with the better run game and the better kicker, and last season Jason Myers led the league in scoring.
The line
As of Sunday morning, DraftKings has Seattle by 8.5, a total of 40.5, and a moneyline of Seattle -410, Washington +320; ESPN, VegasInsider and the Action Network show 8.5 across the major books, though one odds site still showed 6.5 at 7:30 a.m. Pacific. The spring lookahead was Seattle by 3.5 with a total of 46.5. It moved to 7 on Daniels’ elbow and Mariota’s promotion, and to 8.5 once Darnold was cleared Friday. Losing both starting safeties did not move it back. ESPN’s matchup predictor had Seattle at 68.6 percent on Wednesday.
Washington state allows sports betting only in person at tribal casinos; Maryland allows it online for anyone physically in the state. We carry no sportsbook advertising, and the numbers are here because fans ask, not as advice.
Prediction
Seattle 24, Washington 13. The run game that closed out Arizona works better in the rain than anything Washington does without Daniels, Darnold is asked to manage rather than win it, and the front makes Mariota uncomfortable enough that the safeties are protected. The risk is a Diggs touchdown over a first-time starter, which is why this is not a blowout pick. Under 40.5 is the side we would take if we took sides.
The game day guide has the broadcast, the Seattle bars open before 10 a.m., and the Landover day in the rain. Next week is the Chargers at Lumen Field.
Questions
What is the prediction for Seahawks vs Commanders?
Seattle 24, Washington 13. Darnold's return and a Washington offense missing Jayden Daniels, its left tackle and its starting tight end outweigh Seattle's missing safeties, and the rain and wind in Landover favor the team that ran 40 times last week.
What are the odds for Seahawks at Commanders?
As of Sunday morning, September 27, Seattle is favored by 8.5 with a total of 40.5 and a moneyline of Seattle -410, Washington +320 at DraftKings. The spring lookahead was Seattle by 3.5.
Who is on the injury report for Seahawks at Commanders?
Seattle has ruled out safeties Julian Love (calf) and Ty Okada (hamstring), and nose tackle Brandon Pili (concussion, neck) is questionable; Sam Darnold (glute) has no designation and starts. Washington has ruled out Jayden Daniels (left elbow), guard Sam Cosmi, safety Nick Cross, linebacker Frankie Luvu and tight end Chig Okonkwo.