Week 6 preview: Seahawks at Broncos, prediction, odds and injury report
Our pick: Seattle 20, Denver 17. Why. Not advice.
Final: Broncos 17, Seahawks 14, in overtime. We picked Seattle 20-17 and leaned under 40.5. The winner was wrong and the under was right, with 31 points. The preview said Seattle should win if Darnold got through the first quarter without a giveaway; he did, and Seattle still turned it over three times, a Rashid Shaheed fumble in the second quarter and two Darnold interceptions, the last in overtime at the Seattle 43, which set up Wil Lutz’s 53-yard winning field goal. Denver lived on takeaways again, and Seattle had none. Seattle lost as a 3-point favorite in DraftKings’ final number in ESPN’s game data, 2.5 when this preview was written. The preview below is as written before kickoff.
Both teams are 3-2, and they got there in opposite ways on Sunday. Seattle’s defense held San Francisco to 269 yards and lost 32-29, because four Seattle turnovers became 21 points. Denver’s offense gained 224 yards and went 1 of 12 on third down at the Chargers and won 23-17, because its defense took the ball away three times. On Thursday at 5:15 p.m. Pacific on Prime Video, with three days to prepare, the team that keeps giving the ball away plays the team that keeps taking it.
The injury picture
The first report came Monday, and it is an estimate: neither team practiced, so each club listed what its players would have done. Two more practice reports follow on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the game statuses on Wednesday. The full day-by-day table goes on the injury report as each club posts.
Seattle. Mike Macdonald said after Sunday’s game that running back Zach Charbonnet, still on the physically unable to perform list, is not expected to play: “The plan right now isn’t for sure for him to play. That could change, but as of right now, he’s not going to play.” Rookie Jadarian Price is on injured reserve. Linebacker Drake Thomas hurt his ankle in the second quarter Sunday and came back to finish the game; Macdonald said there were no other injury updates. On Monday’s estimate Thomas and linebacker Chazz Surratt (calf), inactive Sunday, did not practice. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ankle) and backup quarterback Drew Lock (right forearm) are new on the report as limited, along with Leonard Williams (ankle), Beau Stephens (shoulder) and Charbonnet. Macdonald on Monday, asked whether Charbonnet plays: “As of right now, the answer is no, subject to change.” Cornerback Julian Neal (hamstring) went on injured reserve on Saturday. On Tuesday Seattle activated receiver Irv Charles from injured reserve, clearing him for his Seahawks debut, mostly on special teams, and released running back Velus Jones Jr.
Denver. Cornerbacks Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss were ruled out of Sunday’s game at the Chargers after being hurt against San Francisco a week earlier. On Monday’s estimate Surtain (ankle) did not practice and Moss (ribs) was limited, and safety Talanoa Hufanga (ankle), who left Sunday’s game, did not practice either. Whether they play is not known until Wednesday’s statuses. Receiver Pat Bryant went on injured reserve on October 9, per the club.
What the Broncos have done
Lost 31-10 at Kansas City in Week 1, beat Jacksonville 20-13 and the Rams 30-26 at home, lost 24-14 at San Francisco, and won 23-17 at the Chargers on Sunday. All three wins came by one score. On Sunday they trailed 17-10 entering the fourth quarter and scored on their last three possessions: Bo Nix’s 5-yard touchdown pass to Courtland Sutton, then Wil Lutz field goals from 19 and 36 yards, each after a takeaway or a fourth-down stop gave them a short field.
The offense is the question. Nix went 16 of 27 for 123 yards and a touchdown on Sunday, and his own review was “I don’t think it was my best, for sure.” Sean Payton named third downs as the thing to fix. The run game found something late: 29 carries for 106 yards, both season highs per the club, with J.K. Dobbins carrying 18 times for 68 yards and a touchdown.
The defense is the reason they are 3-2. Against the Chargers it sacked Justin Herbert five times and forced three turnovers: a Talanoa Hufanga punch-out recovered by Brandon Jones, a Zach Allen strip-sack, and Jones’ interception. Nix: “I don’t think we win the game without those turnovers.”
The matchups that decide it
Seattle’s ball security against Denver’s takeaways. This is the game again. Seattle has seven giveaways in its two losses, and its opponents have scored 45 points off Seattle turnovers over the last three games, per the club. Darnold has thrown an interception on Seattle’s first possession two weeks running. Denver’s defense just won a game it was losing by taking the ball away. Macdonald on Sunday: “Way too many giveaways at this point in the season.”
Denver’s third downs against Seattle’s defense. Denver was 1 of 12 on Sunday; San Francisco was 4 of 12 in Seattle. Byron Murphy II had two sacks and three tackles for loss against the 49ers, and Seattle’s defense allowed 11 points on drives that did not start with a Seattle turnover.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba against a short-handed secondary. Smith-Njigba has four 100-yard games in five. If Surtain and Moss cannot play, Denver’s coverage against him is the matchup to watch on the injury report this week.
Seattle’s run game. Emanuel Wilson ran 20 times for 61 yards on Sunday, and Charbonnet is not expected back. The Chargers ran for 155 yards against Denver on Sunday, so the run is there to be tried, and a Seattle offense that falls behind and has to throw is the one that has been turning the ball over.
The line
As of Tuesday morning, October 13 (checked at 6:38 a.m. Pacific through ESPN), DraftKings has Seattle favored by 2.5, with a total of 40.5 and a moneyline of Seattle -148, Denver +124. The VegasInsider consensus is the same, with the books split between 2.5 and 3. On Monday morning it was Seattle -3, 41.5 and -155; it opened in May at Seattle -2.5 with a total of 43.5 and a moneyline of -130. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Seattle a 52.8 percent chance to win. Seattle is 1-2-2 against the spread this season, and both of its losses came as the favorite, by a combined five points; every week’s line is on our odds page.
Washington state allows sports betting only in person at tribal casinos. We carry no sportsbook advertising, and the numbers are here because fans ask, not as advice.
Prediction
Seattle 20, Denver 17. Seattle’s defense has kept it in every game it has played, and Denver’s offense has not been good enough to win without help. The help is the problem: Denver lives on takeaways and Seattle keeps supplying them. If Darnold gets through the first quarter without a giveaway, Seattle should win; we are not confident he will. Under 40.5 is the side we would lean to if we took sides, because both defenses are better than both offenses right now. Not advice. We revisit the pick after Wednesday’s game status reports.
The game day guide has the Prime Video details, the forecast, Empower Field parking and the light rail. Our Week 5 preview has how last week’s pick held up.
Week 6: Seahawks at Broncos
Questions
What is the prediction for Seahawks vs Broncos?
Seattle 20, Denver 17, as of Monday, October 12. Denver's offense went 1 of 12 on third down on Sunday and Seattle's defense held the 49ers to 269 yards, but Seattle has turned the ball over seven times in its two losses and Denver just forced three turnovers. We revisit the pick after Wednesday's game status reports.
What are the odds for Seahawks vs Broncos?
As of Tuesday morning, October 13, at 6:38 a.m. Pacific, DraftKings has Seattle favored by 2.5 with a total of 40.5 and a moneyline of Seattle -148, Denver +124. On Monday it was Seattle -3 and 41.5; the VegasInsider consensus opened at Seattle -2.5 and 43.5.
When is the injury report for Seahawks vs Broncos?
For a Thursday game, practice reports come Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, each due by 1 p.m. Pacific or after practice, and the game status report (out, doubtful, questionable) on Wednesday, October 14.