Week 7 preview: Seahawks vs Chiefs, prediction, odds and injury report
Our pick: Kansas City 24, Seattle 20. Why. Not advice.
Seattle is 3-3 and has lost three of its last four, all by three points or fewer, the last 17-14 in overtime at Denver on Thursday night. Kansas City is 5-0 after beating the Chargers 22-6 at home on October 18, with a bye in Week 5. This is the first look, written the morning after the Denver game and nine days before kickoff, which is Sunday, October 25, at 5:20 p.m. Pacific on NBC. It was updated after that game and on Tuesday, October 20, and will be again when the injury reports are in.
The injury picture
The first practice report for this game is Wednesday, October 21. Until then, here is where both teams stand.
Seattle. On Monday, October 19, Mike Macdonald said tight end Elijah Arroyo, who hurt his shoulder in the second quarter at Denver, is “going to be out a significant amount of time. How long that is, I’m not sure,” and the team had not decided whether he goes on injured reserve. Right guard Anthony Bradford, on injured reserve since September 23, was designated to return to practice on Monday, and Macdonald said, “if he has a good week, he’s going to play a significant amount, if not the whole game.” Zach Charbonnet, still on the physically unable to perform list, will get a full week of practice, and Macdonald said “there’s a possibility that you could see him on Sunday in some capacity.” Linebacker Drake Thomas (ankle) missed the Denver game, as did Chazz Surratt (calf), and Tyrice Knight played in Thomas’ place; on Thomas, Macdonald said, “He’s doing well. No update for Drake, but we’ll see on Wednesday.” Rookie running back Jadarian Price, on injured reserve, is eligible to return after this game: “We’ve got one more game, then we’ll go from there.” The quotes are from the club’s report on Monday’s press conference. The full day-by-day table goes on the injury report as each club posts.
Kansas City. Kansas City beat the Chargers 22-6 on October 18. Per the club’s October 19 recap, tackle Jaylon Moore (concussion) left that game early, and tight end Travis Kelce “sustained an ankle injury early in the contest, but he managed to play through it and didn’t miss any time.” On the Chiefs’ Friday report for the Chargers game, receiver Rashee Rice (hamstring, knee) did not practice all week and was out, tackle Josh Simmons (back) was out, and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed (knee) was questionable; Sneed forced a fourth-quarter fumble in the game, per the club. Patrick Mahomes (knee) was a full participant all week with no designation, and defensive lineman Peter Woods (neck) was full on Friday. Who plays on October 25 is not known until the Chiefs’ own reports for this game.
What the Chiefs have done
Beat Denver 31-10 and Indianapolis 33-30 at home, then won 24-10 at Miami and 30-27 at Las Vegas. Two of the four were decided by three points, against the Colts and the Raiders. Per ESPN’s season figures, Kansas City averages 29.5 points and 421.5 yards a game, has converted 44 percent of its third downs, and has scored on 89.5 percent of its red-zone trips. The Chiefs have thrown nine touchdown passes and two interceptions and have not lost a fumble, and with seven takeaways they are plus five in turnovers.
Kenneth Walker III, whom Seattle drafted in 2022, is on the Chiefs’ roster and wears No. 9, and Travis Kelce is still there. October 25 is Walker’s first game at Lumen Field as an opponent.
The matchups that decide it
Seattle’s ball security against a team that does not give it away. Seattle has turned it over ten times in its three losses, and the turnovers decided the losses at Washington and against San Francisco and the overtime at Denver. Kansas City has two giveaways in four games. Seattle cannot keep giving away possessions to an offense that scores on almost nine of every ten red-zone trips.
Seattle’s protection. Sam Darnold was sacked five times against the 49ers and five more at Denver, where per the club the Broncos hit him 17 times. Mike Macdonald: “The quarterback is getting hit way too much, everybody sees that.” He has ten days to find a fix.
Seattle’s defense against a real offense. Seattle held Denver to 168 yards and the 49ers to 269. Kansas City has scored at least 24 in every game. The Seahawks’ defense has kept them in every game; this is the best offense it has seen.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Twelve catches for 134 yards at Denver, his fifth 100-yard game in six. He is the reliable part of Seattle’s offense.
The line
As of Tuesday, October 20, at 6:40 a.m. Pacific, DraftKings has Seattle by 2.5, total 42.5, moneyline Seattle -135 and Kansas City +114, per ESPN’s game data, and VegasInsider’s consensus is the same. It opened Seattle by 3 with a total of 45.5. The spread has held at 2.5 since October 13, apart from a few hours at 1.5 late on October 18, and the total dropped from 44.5 to 42.5 that night, after Kansas City held the Chargers to six points, per VegasInsider’s line-movement chart. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Seattle a 46.8 percent chance at home, down from 51.3 on Saturday. The injury reports from Wednesday can move it, and the Seahawks odds page has Seattle’s record against the number: 1-3-2 against the spread through six games.
Washington allows sports betting only in person at tribal casinos, and there is no legal online sportsbook in the state. We carry no sportsbook advertising, and the numbers are here because fans ask, not as advice.
Prediction
Kansas City 24, Seattle 20. Seattle’s defense will keep it close, as it has every week, and Lumen Field at night helps. But Seattle’s three losses have come by a combined eight points, all with turnovers at the center of them, while Kansas City had handed it over twice in four games when we made the pick, and has four giveaways in five games since the Chargers game, per ESPN’s game data. If Seattle wins the turnover battle, it can win this. We have no total to lean on yet; we will add an under or over lean when one posts. Not advice. The pick was made on October 16, before Kansas City’s win over the Chargers; we revisit it after Friday’s game status reports.
The game day guide has the NBC details, tickets and getting to Lumen Field. Our Week 6 preview has how last week’s pick held up.
Week 7: Seahawks vs Chiefs
Questions
What is the prediction for Seahawks vs Chiefs?
Kansas City 24, Seattle 20, made on Friday, October 16, before Kansas City beat the Chargers 22-6 on October 18. Seattle has turned the ball over ten times in its three losses; Kansas City has four giveaways in five games. We revisit the pick after Friday's game status reports.
What are the odds for Seahawks vs Chiefs?
As of Tuesday, October 20, at 6:40 a.m. Pacific, DraftKings (through ESPN) and VegasInsider's consensus both have Seattle by 2.5, total 42.5, moneyline Seattle -135 and Kansas City +114. It opened Seattle by 3 with a total of 45.5. ESPN's matchup predictor gives Seattle a 46.8 percent chance to win.
When is the injury report for Seahawks vs Chiefs?
Practice reports come Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, October 21 to 23, each due by 1 p.m. Pacific or after practice, and the game status report (out, doubtful, questionable) on Friday, October 23.